Covid-19 ... coronavirus ... thoughts?
- Thread starter overlandflyer
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overlandflyer
Well-known member
i'm pretty much convinced at this time that the chances of a surface contamination is very low, so i've been out shopping... mostly for food & Home Depot stuff to keep busy at home with many unnecessary projects. but i tend to go out early (like today in a few minutes) and indoors, everyone is required to wear a mask... come to think of it, outdoors now, too... but i will judge that on distance from people. often when i'm out, i'm relatively alone within a very large radius.
overlandflyer
Well-known member
something i'm discovering a lot of people don't know.
COVID-19
CO... corona
VI.... virus
D..... disease
19.... 2019, the year it was identified.
COVID-19
CO... corona
VI.... virus
D..... disease
19.... 2019, the year it was identified.
Omega
Moderator
A friend of mine thought that I was kidding when she said- if there is another spike but it has morphed (as it is "slippery") what will they say it is - and I said - they'd probably call it covid20 and start the numbers again so it didn't sound so bad. She thought that I was kidding - but I was actually being quite serious.
overlandflyer
Well-known member
doesn't look good...
three days ago, the # of days to double positive tests started dropping (a high number is better). hospitalizations usually lag positive tests in 7 - 10 days. two things that might be a silver lining. 1) apparently the infection has shifted to younger people, so hospitalization and especially ICU might not be a major concern for now and 2) at least medical workers are more prepared than 2-3 months ago. while PPE will remain in demand, the situation does not seem as critical as it once was.
three days ago, the # of days to double positive tests started dropping (a high number is better). hospitalizations usually lag positive tests in 7 - 10 days. two things that might be a silver lining. 1) apparently the infection has shifted to younger people, so hospitalization and especially ICU might not be a major concern for now and 2) at least medical workers are more prepared than 2-3 months ago. while PPE will remain in demand, the situation does not seem as critical as it once was.
overlandflyer
Well-known member
News coverage...
for the most part i watch 4 different new stations... some more than others, but especially on the hour, i check to see what the headlines are. for the past few days this has been the trend...
MSNBC - corona virus and the US response... failing. spotlight on medical experts with the latest science.
CNN - corona virus and the US response... failing. spotlight on medical experts with the latest science.
FOX - so-called radical left protests for police defunding claiming they want to abolish police departments (untrue) and showing month-old video clips of rioting.
OAN - so-called redical left push to tear down political monuments. Trump signing EO to jail protestors. generally southern republican politicians defending the history of Confederate monuments and against renaming military bases honoring Confederate figures.
for the most part i watch 4 different new stations... some more than others, but especially on the hour, i check to see what the headlines are. for the past few days this has been the trend...
MSNBC - corona virus and the US response... failing. spotlight on medical experts with the latest science.
CNN - corona virus and the US response... failing. spotlight on medical experts with the latest science.
FOX - so-called radical left protests for police defunding claiming they want to abolish police departments (untrue) and showing month-old video clips of rioting.
OAN - so-called redical left push to tear down political monuments. Trump signing EO to jail protestors. generally southern republican politicians defending the history of Confederate monuments and against renaming military bases honoring Confederate figures.
Here in Australia we look on in horror at what is happening over there, our news (SBS, ABC, Al Jazeera) showed a quick mention of the EO and a bit of coverage of you corona situation among the rest of the international news. The news on the commercial channels is hard to watch and are more like paid adverts, special interest hype and almost no reporting of what is happening outside our own borders. Because out TV is satellite based I also have the option of watching the BBC news and the news broadcast of a couple of US stations.
We have one state here with problems (Victoria) but in the states Cate and I live they are still doing ok with closed borders.
In Queensland today's numbers will not be released till lunch time but as of midday yesterday we has 2 cases and no community transmission.
We have one state here with problems (Victoria) but in the states Cate and I live they are still doing ok with closed borders.
In Queensland today's numbers will not be released till lunch time but as of midday yesterday we has 2 cases and no community transmission.
overlandflyer
Well-known member
this just amazes me that anyone can be so manipulated. a political figure on the news this morning downplayed the use of face masks/ mouth and nasal coverings by saying he had studies that proved masked do not prevent viral infections. because i tend to not trust the words of most politicians, i did some Google searching. it only took a few minutes.
the first hits came from conservative websites, some that luckily included footnotes to actual scientific studies. reading through a few of those studies, it was quite evident where the rhetoric was coming from. nearly all the papers, often right in the abstracts, claimed something close to the following...
"There is some evidence to support the wearing of masks or respirators during illness to protect others, and public health emphasis on mask wearing during illness may help to reduce influenza virus transmission. There are fewer data to support the use of masks or respirators to prevent becoming infected."
of course the conservative websites are cherry-picking the second sentence and ignoring the first, and then carefully wording their "reports" to avoid any words suggesting that of course masks are not 100% effective... like condoms? ... but they effectively lower the POSSIBILITY of infection.
the first hits came from conservative websites, some that luckily included footnotes to actual scientific studies. reading through a few of those studies, it was quite evident where the rhetoric was coming from. nearly all the papers, often right in the abstracts, claimed something close to the following...
"There is some evidence to support the wearing of masks or respirators during illness to protect others, and public health emphasis on mask wearing during illness may help to reduce influenza virus transmission. There are fewer data to support the use of masks or respirators to prevent becoming infected."
of course the conservative websites are cherry-picking the second sentence and ignoring the first, and then carefully wording their "reports" to avoid any words suggesting that of course masks are not 100% effective... like condoms? ... but they effectively lower the POSSIBILITY of infection.
jonom
Well-known member
Yikes! In Virginia the cases are going down somewhat and we're supposed to go into Phase 3 of re-opening on Wed (July 1). I'm hoping there isn't a spike like in other states!
alligatorob
Respected Member
I believe that in the US the virus is going to continue to spread until we reach the herd immunity level, and at a rate faster than most of the world. It is not a planned thing, we have no leadership, its just what appears to me to be happening. I am a little ambivalent, but I sure wish we had some scientifically informed leadership helping guide the way. I can see some logic to it, getting over the virus sooner would be less economically damaging. But I also know a lot of people will get sick and die, the question is will there be more of those than if we did a better job of controlling or will it just happen sooner? Unfortunately the answer is no one knows. From my point of view that is our real failing a real government lead scientifically based analysis could help answer some of these important questions and help inform good decision making. It appears to me that is totally lacking, in the US anyway.
My trip to Florida really reinforced this. Florida has a high and rising infection rate, but social distancing there is not very good or consistent. I believe the majority of people there are tried of it and just not doing it. I saw lots of handshaking, hugging and crowding and not a lot of masks. Politically and socially many people have just decided not to worry so much about the virus. Here in Utah even though we have fewer government directed restrictions people are more careful, but not everyone.
I try to be careful, I wash my hands a lot and carry hand sanitizer with me most of the time. I carry a mask and put it on when I feel uncomfortable. I don't want to get this thing.
My trip to Florida really reinforced this. Florida has a high and rising infection rate, but social distancing there is not very good or consistent. I believe the majority of people there are tried of it and just not doing it. I saw lots of handshaking, hugging and crowding and not a lot of masks. Politically and socially many people have just decided not to worry so much about the virus. Here in Utah even though we have fewer government directed restrictions people are more careful, but not everyone.
I try to be careful, I wash my hands a lot and carry hand sanitizer with me most of the time. I carry a mask and put it on when I feel uncomfortable. I don't want to get this thing.
overlandflyer
Well-known member
it just doesn't stop...
politician speak... "positive test surge is due to the recent protests. the reopening of businesses happened weeks before. it couldn't have been because of that."
science speak... "although the country opened up further in early June, cell phone patterns confirm that the movement back to business was very gradual over the first few weeks. this correlates to the rise in positive coronavirus tests."
politician speak... "positive test surge is due to the recent protests. the reopening of businesses happened weeks before. it couldn't have been because of that."
science speak... "although the country opened up further in early June, cell phone patterns confirm that the movement back to business was very gradual over the first few weeks. this correlates to the rise in positive coronavirus tests."
alligatorob
Respected Member
Our current administration is pursuing the let it spread and get it over with strategy (assuming there actually is a strategy, I suspect its more just what happens without a strategy). While at the same time talking big about a vaccine. If one believes a vaccine is coming the let it spread approach is absolutely wrong. No science, and probably no strategy...
To our president's credit he has tried everything he knows how to do to fight it. Ignore it, make fun of it, ridicule people who disagree with him about it, tweet lots of stuff and hold rallies. All things that worked for him so far, but don't seem to be controlling the virus.
To our president's credit he has tried everything he knows how to do to fight it. Ignore it, make fun of it, ridicule people who disagree with him about it, tweet lots of stuff and hold rallies. All things that worked for him so far, but don't seem to be controlling the virus.
alligatorob
Respected Member
The US hit 3,000,000 cases yesterday, and according to the head of our CDC (Center for Disease Control) there are likely 10 times as many cases as reported mostly due to lack of testing (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/ ). If that is true we are approaching 10% of the population infected. And if that is true there is no stopping it now, not at the population level anyway. Only individuals can protect themselves. Hopefully the more at risk people will successfully do that.
I am stepping up my precautions, it seems to me this is the time they are most needed. I want to be one of the lucky ones who doesn't get it while others do and we build that herd immunity thing. Best of luck to y'all, lets be disease free!
I am stepping up my precautions, it seems to me this is the time they are most needed. I want to be one of the lucky ones who doesn't get it while others do and we build that herd immunity thing. Best of luck to y'all, lets be disease free!
overlandflyer
Well-known member
from the White House, 9 July... one week ago...
seeing 10+ deaths in one day for the first time 10 days ago, San Diego county has seen 10+ deaths each day in the past 3 days.
four months and Trump still doesn't seem to get it...
hospitalizations lag behind positive tests.
ICU admissions lag behind hospitalizations.
deaths lag behind ICU admissions.
lather, rinse, repeat.
seeing 10+ deaths in one day for the first time 10 days ago, San Diego county has seen 10+ deaths each day in the past 3 days.
four months and Trump still doesn't seem to get it...
hospitalizations lag behind positive tests.
ICU admissions lag behind hospitalizations.
deaths lag behind ICU admissions.
lather, rinse, repeat.
alligatorob
Respected Member
The complete lack of any effort from our federal government to provide this kind of information is but one of our failings. A big one.from the White House, 9 July... one week ago...
seeing 10+ deaths in one day for the first time 10 days ago, San Diego county has seen 10+ deaths each day in the past 3 days.
Keep safe my friend, now is when I believe we are at the greatest risk.
overlandflyer
Well-known member
one other horrible thought occurred to me today. when you look at that graph, the ICU number is DELTA or the change. to get an idea how many check into the ICU you really have to add in the deaths. minus one dead, plus one admission = net change of zero. it's worse than it looks.
i hesitate to use the word lucky, but looking at my ZIP code, our niche has one of the lowest case numbers in the city and at least all the early morning shoppers, which are the only ones i run into, are following the rules. just drives me crazy knowing that if everyone would be doing what i have .... FOR THE PAST 4 MONTHS... for just 2 weeks, it would be 99% contained. add in the misinformation which is going to destroy any chance of that happening.
today set a new high for positive tests in the county ... 634
50 deaths in the last 4 days.
my life clock is ticking away and i know there is no renewal...!
i hesitate to use the word lucky, but looking at my ZIP code, our niche has one of the lowest case numbers in the city and at least all the early morning shoppers, which are the only ones i run into, are following the rules. just drives me crazy knowing that if everyone would be doing what i have .... FOR THE PAST 4 MONTHS... for just 2 weeks, it would be 99% contained. add in the misinformation which is going to destroy any chance of that happening.
today set a new high for positive tests in the county ... 634
50 deaths in the last 4 days.
my life clock is ticking away and i know there is no renewal...!
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overlandflyer
Well-known member
i had a weird thought today.... someday i'm sure things will return to normal, but i'm wondering how businesses will deal with people who might want to go on wearing a mask. i know a while back my bank was making people take off dark glasses and hats. i can't imagine they aren't freaking out now that i walk in with a hat and a mask i tie around (i'm still using a few layers of #9 cheesecloth) that pretty much covers half my face.
alligatorob
Respected Member
Interesting question, there are places you don't want faces covered.
In Asia mask wearing has been a practice for a long time, particularly people with colds or the flu. Riding on the subway in Tokyo 20 years ago I saw a people with masks, not so many as now but some. I suspect something like that may happen here.
In Asia mask wearing has been a practice for a long time, particularly people with colds or the flu. Riding on the subway in Tokyo 20 years ago I saw a people with masks, not so many as now but some. I suspect something like that may happen here.
Aren't we all...
