Covid-19 ... coronavirus ... thoughts?

i don't like to call two days a trend, but unfortunately today's report was comparable to the Δ levels yesterday.
 
statistically there may be a number of factors that could be used in an argument against this logic, but locally we now have 2087 reported cases of Covid-19 with 63 deaths. even ignoring the lag between case determined, case hospitalized, case to intensive care, ... that's still >3% chance of dying. to put that into perspective, when i recently had to have a very minor operation, the hospital pluged all my factors into an equation to come up with a number; a percentage that you will not survive the procedure. mine turned out to be 1.5% due to a couple of factors not the least of which is of course my age. the doctor told me that it would still be up to me, but he frankly said he likes to see a number 1% or less. i believe the death rate of the normal flu is more like 0.1% with the vast majority of those being seniors (65+).
 
Problem is until we have proper testing in a controlled study we don't really know what the death rate is. Right now most people being tested have symptoms, a very bias sampling.

If many people have the virus but don't have symptoms, or have mild symptoms and don't get tested it is possible the death rate is much lower. However that may not be true, we just don't know.

I find it very disappointing that we don't have the data we need to know. Goes right to the problem of a lack of leadership at the top.
 
Good news today for Queensland with no new cases in today's report. Hubby is back at work after the school holidays and youngest sons boss is continuing to find enough work for him to have a reasonable number of hours despite the business being shut down, they are doing maintenance and upgrades while they have no customers. My 2 other sons are in a different state but are flat out with work.
 
you have a good point Rob... i'm sure testing is still a bottleneck so the death percentage i calculate is probably high if you consider the number of unreported or the general lag in reported cases. here is a graph that should minimize the testing problem. just the hospitalization and ICU growth and variance...

coronagraph 03.jpg

today was a good day, but i'm not really seeing a trend yet.
 
alligatorob said:
I find it very disappointing that we don't have the data we need to know. Goes right to the problem of a lack of leadership at the top.
Click to expand...
Research - serious, solid research - does take a while. There's a heap of very suggestive preliminary studies out there, and I can guarantee thousands, probably hundreds of thousands, of researchers hard at it, gathering data, number-crunching in a dozen different ways, constructing new studies, with everybody champing at the bit for a result.
One interesting study: Air pollution may be ‘key contributor’ to Covid-19 deaths – study
Minor interesting stat - in Australia, cases of "ordinary" flu this season are way down, presumably as a result of social distancing plus better hygiene.
 
when i searched to find those China pictures, it was scary to see photos of practically any city in SE Asia all the way down to India which has something like 8 or 9 of the top 10 most polluted cities in the world. i have to imagine living and breathing in that air all day could do considerable damage to your lungs over time. throw in a respiratory virus and right away you're starting with a handicap which will lessen the chance of a recovery.

fingers crossed... another better day... only 10 new hosp admissions, 1 new ICU and 1 more death.
 
i had to do a double-take today. a record breaking 300 new positive tests and 49 new hospital admissions...

coronagraph 03.jpg

going on my 6th week of tracking this data, decided to cut it back to display only the last 4 weeks.
this does not seem to be getting better.
 
I did a double take this morning when I saw the US stats. I thought they must have been wrong.
 
remote body temperature sensing seems to have been gaining acceptance for early Covid-19 detection. if you have never done this before, i would suggest taking your temperature at a time you feel normal. throughout my life my normal body temperature is 97.8° F ... almost a degree less than the 98.6° typically considered normal. contrary to that standard, even when my temperature hits a mere 99°, i know i have come down with something.
 
Cate said:
I did a double take this morning when I saw the US stats. I thought they must have been wrong.
Click to expand...
despite what Trump claims nearly every chance he gets, per capita, the U.S. has one of the worse testing programs in the world and the state governors are NOT happy with his response. they just know if they even attempt to say anything negative about the Trump team dysfunction, their requests will be sent to the end of the line.
 
quite an amazing video on a few points... it was made in Oct 2010 & posted a few months later... and look at the number of thumbs up/ down... a fair indication of how many people have actually watched this. if you have little time, jump to 10:00.

 
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joke...
two guys walk into a bar... you'd think the 2nd guy would have seen it.

no joke...
NYC Poison Control Sees Uptick In Calls After Trump's Disinfectant Comments
 
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