Covid-19 ... coronavirus ... thoughts?

alligatorob said:
I am not sure he is wrong (or right) I know the virus kills people, but have no idea how many it will be. The current shutdown is causing a lot of stress on folks and the economy. Poverty is a cause of death, poor people die earlier, and a recession will make more poor people. Depression can lead to death and I think the shutdown is increasing depression. Do you know if anyone has taken a realistic look at the trade offs?
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I know that China and Italy tried waiting it out at first... Depression may be a killer but it doesn´t get that many people in such a short time. Looks like the US will overtake Italy tomorrow. In cases though, not deaths - yet. The deaths only really start going up once your ICUs are overburdened, but then they go fast. Not to mention that the US seem to have a lot of people who are scared to go to the hospital because of possible lifelong debt.
 
LaMaria said:
.... The deaths only really start going up once your ICUs are overburdened, ....
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i remember a chilling line of dialog from a M*A*S*H rerun... they were discussing the nurses relieving the doctors in taking over triage. the meaning of that word was then revealed as the military saw it. the "tri-" portion of the word suggests that there are three groups that the wounded should be put in... the first group are those who required immediate attention. the second were those who could wait and they were given meds to lessen the pain until they could be worked on. the third group were the wounded who, although under other conditions might be able to be saved, would overburden the doctors and would risk losing many others in the meantime. those soldiers could only be made as comfortable as they could manage until they died.

i can't imagine how horrible it must be to be put in a position like that, but that seems to be the decision many hospitals will soon be facing.
 
overlandflyer said:
the meaning of that word was then revealed as the military saw it. the "tri-" portion of the word suggests that there are three groups that the wounded should be put in...
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Normally the word just comes from the French "trier" (to separate out). But the description of the process in mass emergency situations sounds horrifyingly realistic.
 
:iagree: ... yeah, i looked that up, but i like the other story.

third death in our county yesterday...
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something to keep in mind... hospitals typically run around 80-85% capacity under normal conditions.
 
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cute... a little disappointed that reading was left off the list of indoor activity suggestions. i've been reading two books off and on recently... one called NanoMorphosis, a sci-fi novel written by a friend of mine, and To Kill a Mockingbird, which of course i know the story fairly well, but Harper Lee's writing style is something i'm enjoying. it's also fun to read because in my head Atticus FInch sounds just like Gregory Peck.
 
here's the bad news... today Trump said California is a good example of a state that went into action early. if we are a good example... some other states are in for a ****-storm. until the rate of increase stops growing (change), we are far from this getting better.

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it still looks like an exponential curve with a new high in new cases in one day today ... and again, this is in a county where the few adults i've seen out are observing physical distancing, though i do see groups of kids out playing together...

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one thing i have noticed... the first week or so i was keeping track, male cases were leading female cases at about 2:1, but now they have evened out somewhat...

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a table showing the cross section of age vs hospitalization...

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it does look like its favoring the older populace, but not exclusively.
 
i may be one of the few people left who still use paper money (i don't like to use a charge card for local businesses to avoid the bank's cut on their profits), but if you do, remember that "paper" money is really make of linen and can be thrown in the wash... though i wouldn't suggest bleach.
 
i took a look at some traffic cams the other day... i'm really looking forward to seeing if taking a month off cleans up the air any appreciable amount. truck drivers who are still out there must be in heaven.
 
seems like my corner of California is following the trend i have been seeing in NY...

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it certainly looks like the case number is starting to level off while the hospitalization rate will probably continue to rise for a while longer as it appears it takes about 7 days before you either continue to successfully fight the virus or it starts to damage your lungs. today was the largest increase in deaths (19 --> 31 ... +12). not even being at the peak yet, however, means we're still less than halfway through this ordeal.
 
after looking like it finally might be leveling off the past week, yesterday seems like it was a bad day across the entire country. this is a sad thought, but with Easter Sunday (and i know some cultures celebrate Easter Monday), i am wondering if some reports were intentionally delayed.

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the unrelenting increase in hospitalizations (which does take into account discharges/ deaths) is discouraging for anyone who thinks this in under control enough to open up the economy. without a national plan, this is heading to be a rolling disaster without a perceivable end.
 
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