Covid-19 ... coronavirus ... thoughts?

The Tasmanian Gov't has announced that from the 26th of Oct our border will be reopened :(
We haven't had an active case since July. That will soon change :(
"As at 6pm, 1 October 2020
Cases in Tasmania

New cases in past 24 hours 0
Total cases 228
Active 0 (No active cases for
Recovered 215
Deaths13
Source: Public Health Services."
 
President-elect Biden is already forming a team to address the COVID-19 epidemic here in the US after a less than lack luster performance by the current administration who have claimed the virus would magically disappear after Nov 3rd. here in SoCal, we have actually been doing better than the rest of the country, but even this state is now seeing a trending rise in cases this past week.

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We are in lockdown here in Newcastle again. Essential shops are open - but non-essentials are shut as are pubs, restaurants, gyms etc.

Things seem to be improving and the rest of the country has been catching up.

Schools and universities are still open and a lot of our cases have been from the university and colleges.

We are hoping for some new ideas... In the past Boris has been heavily influenced by Trump who he seems to have classed as a mentor.
 

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Trump supporters here are still my biggest concern, too. Joe Biden will definitely present a better case for wearing masks as an example, but i fear the redhats will continue to deny the science. i'm hoping that Biden stays in the background at any future briefings and lets his new 12-person medical /science team offer unobstructed statistics and advice. politically, Biden should only address the economic concerns.
 
Doctors and epidemiologists tend to be myopically concerned with the lives they can save right now - especially the ones they know how to count. The president should balance those desires against the potential for lives (and freedoms) lost in the long run from restrictive measures, both directly and indirectly.

For instance, lockdowns have directly led to a rise elder care deaths in the US - we're talking among those not testing positive for covid. Turns out when you leave nursing home patients isolated from family & friends for 6+ months, many give up and die (or perhaps receive subpar care while no one is there to advocate for them). Just among dementia patients, there were over 10,000 excess deaths in June & July alone, according to the CDC (compared to ~42,000 covid 19 deaths during that time period). Suicides & overdoses are also way up, though good stats are hard to find.

And then indirectly: when you add too many restrictions, a growing segment of the population will rebel and wind up abiding by fewer restrictions than ever. This plus the domino effects of job losses & diminished economic prospects will almost certainly shorten American lifespans much more than than a disease primarily affecting those 65+. Think about the millions of kids who risk becoming socially stunted because they spent 18 months of their critical development in isolation. Think about the college grads going into ever increasing debt to obtain lower quality online education - and think about the employers who will have to adapt to that workforce. Covid19 isn't the cause of these issues, our response to it is.

There are only bad choices so there is no simple answer and the apparent best course can vary dramatically depending on your point of view. In my view, the supposedly authoritarian Trump has done a remarkable job showing restraint when he could have used this opportunity to expand his power. His anti mask rhetoric and large gatherings detract heavily from this, but I have to give him beaucoup points for not enacting this generation's version of the Patriot Act.

/politics
 
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Trump supporters here are still my biggest concern, too. Joe Biden will definitely present a better case for wearing masks as an example, but i fear the redhats will continue to deny the science. i'm hoping that Biden stays in the background at any future briefings and lets his new 12-person medical /science team offer unobstructed statistics and advice. politically, Biden should only address the economic concerns.

I will keep out of your countries politics but here in Aus it has been shown what can be achieved when the science is the basis for decisions, most states here had the pain early on but are generally now almost back to normal except for the pain faced by the tourist industry from having closed international borders. Victoria is the only state that had a "second wave", the lockdown and restrictions were severe but have achieved a great outcome with a lot of 0 case days and opening back up now. My own state has not had any new community transmission for a very long time, the only cases being returned travellers from other countries that were placed in quarantine on arrival, we have minimal restrictions and life is not much different to pre-covid.

There has been of course a vocal section of society that were anti lockdown etc. but the majority here are very grateful to not be in the situation that Europe and the USA find themselves in. My states chief health officer was given police protection due to death threats.
 
I had decided not to comment earlier, but we have shown what happens when you get strict early.
Tasmania
230 total cases
217 recovered
13 deaths
No new cases for 90 days.
 
In England - I look in envy at the leadership in New Zealand. For me - the statistics speak for themselves. Early strict control has had results which put ours to shame. They have not only avoided a second wave - they have also kept the numbers very low.

New Zealand Coronavirus: 1,982 Cases and 25 Deaths - Worldometer

Boris and Trump should both hang their head in shame when shown what a national leader can do. They have to carry the blame for the current situation.

A gentleman who lived 12 doors away from me died from the virus last week. We have had an email today from a friend saying that he will be going to the funeral to represent the gentleman's son who cannot attend due to travel restrictions that are in place here.
I live within a quarter of a mile of two district hotspots in my city.
 
Cate and Margaret, all I can do is envy Tasmania and New Zealand, we have more cases in our small county than that!

One thing I find discouraging is that I don't see our virus rates had much impact on the election, Trump may have lost; however the vote percentages were really not much different than 4 years ago pre-virus. It just happened that some of the important states he won by small margins he lost by slim margins this time. That tells me a lot of voters were not too disturbed by his approach to the virus... Maybe not a majority, but a lot. Without public support and cooperation it will hard for us to do much about things...
 
We had a big spike early on (being so close to Italy) but lockdown came early and people followed the rules so we ended up with no more deaths than the same time in a normal year. It wasn't until several months later, when people got sick of social distancing and being sensible, that cases started to rise again. One of my colleagues tested positive in September but thanks to our strict ppe policy she didn't infect a single patient. Lockdowns work, masks help even when they're not perfect, and sticking your head in the sand kills people.
 
Last night just after 9 pm I got an emergency notification on my cell phone that our Governor was about to make a statement. His speech was short and accurately descried the problem, our hospitals are near capacity and without doing something will soon exceed capacity. However his "new restrictions" were less impressive. On the plus side he was wearing a mask and spoke of the importance of mask wearing. He also said there would be lots more testing.

He said there would be an immediate statewide mask mandate, but then went on to say that it would mean businesses should have employees wear masks and "encourage" customers to do the same, no real new requirements... He also banned some public gatherings, and non-immediate family socializing. That second one will be hard to enforce and he mentioned no enforcement means or penalties so its hard to see it having much effect. He said there would be no travel restrictions and no business or school shutdowns, only a few limits on sporting events. And these restrictions are only to last 2 weeks. Better than doing nothing, but it seems to me to be a bit of a day late and dollar short kind of thing. He is a right wing Republican and Trump supporter, that makes his positions a departure from our President, have to be grateful for that.
 
Doctors and epidemiologists tend to be myopically concerned with the lives they can save right now - especially the ones they know how to count. The president should balance those desires against the potential for lives (and freedoms) lost in the long run from restrictive measures, both directly and indirectly.
I have given some thought to what you said, and I do see some logic to the balance you are talking about. An economic shutdown cost lives. I have always thought that our decision making should not be left to scientists. However, I believe good science is essential to making good decisions. My concern is that I don't see that our administration made a conscious decision to be less restrictive as a risk trade off. I am concerned that we are where we are as a result of ignoring the problem. One example of poor leadership is the wearing of masks, there is no question they slow the virus spread, and they take nothing from the economy. We have never gotten any kind of explanation as to why our administration has not promoted mask wearing. Oh well, we are where we are, I just hope for a more coherent science informed and openly communicated policy going forward.
 
.... One example of poor leadership is the wearing of masks, there is no question they slow the virus spread, and they take nothing from the economy. We have never gotten any kind of explanation as to why our administration has not promoted mask wearing. ....

i watch the webcam outside Sloppy Joe's in Key West occasionally (that's Florida, btw). not one person was wearing a mask. needless to say, Florida's republican governor is still riding the Trump train. it looked like a normal day... well, last year normal. except for the dozens of people who will wind up in the hospital, followed by the ICU... followed by being one of the close to 1000 Americans dying EVERY DAY.

the good news is that a vaccine seems closer, but these next few months are going to be devastating to the country and even then, since Trump is actively promoting his false accusation of voter fraud while high level republicans are scared shitless to say anything to criticize Trump while he throws his childish fit, 70% of the republican electorate, close to 35%, the "FOX news only" watching deviants in the country will likely oppose anything the new administration will suggest or mandate.

this day four years ago was when Obama invited Trump into the WH for a briefing and Trump's transition team... well, until he fired everyone on it, could start. today, Trump has ordered his GSA appointment to halt any funding that is generally given to the transition team to start their work, while the Attorney General of the US.... Bill Barr... touted as Trump's personal lawyer, not the AG of the entire country, is telling the DOJ to go out and find some evidence for a court case. got that? no evidence to proceed, so they have to find some. remarkable.

the Trump firings will likely continue and he will try to leave the WH and our government in the worst condition his little mind can come up with. now that he started by firing the head of the Dept of Defense, don't be surprised if Trump follows the plan everyone feared Nixon would take... for the next 72 days he still has the ability to move troops and start a war.... and that even includes a nuclear missile launch.
 
Doctors and epidemiologists tend to be myopically concerned with the lives they can save right now - especially the ones they know how to count. The president should balance those desires against the potential for lives (and freedoms) lost in the long run from restrictive measures, both directly and indirectly. ...

when my mom died from a bungled operation and my dad decided to stop his chemo, his oncologist talked to me nearly every day i was at the hospital with him. she knew i was alone and was in poor shape watching my father die. one day she even insisted i take a break and take the train into NYC for a slice of pizza and a beer. she owed my nothing, so to claim doctors have zero compassion with those who do not directly affect their "income" or "numbers" is a horrible statement to make.

... Turns out when you leave nursing home patients isolated from family & friends for 6+ months, many give up and die (or perhaps receive subpar care while no one is there to advocate for them). ...

my aunt passed away about a year ago and for her last 5 years lived in an assisted living center in Texas. i tried to visit her 2-3 times a year and got to know a few of the residents there. it surprised me to hear there were residents who had family living less than an hour or two drive who had either never visited or maybe dropped in at Christmas or Easter for a few hours. of course this wasn't everyone, but i would have to say it was the majority of the residents who were in that situation. the look of surprise i received when my aunt would tell them i lived 1700 miles away, was momentarily heartening, but in the long term it saddened me. luckily that center had many activities that they offered the residents... they did not just throw them in a room and turn on the TV, there was evidence i saw, even when not being observed, that the staff there truly did care for their charges.

you should rely on stories from people who know conditions first hand and not from those with political views and intentions who simply fabricate specious rhetoric.


...primarily affecting those 65+ ,,,.

the useless people, right?


...Think about the millions of kids, ,,.

how about the 666 and growing number of children the Trump administration took away from their parents?
there are only four kids Trump has any concern for.

if this pandemic was handled the same way it was in South Korea (first death due to the virus happened on the same day in both countries), we wouldn't have had the first shutdown... well over 200,000 Americans would still be alive and i could be sitting at a bar having a beer and doing the NYT crossword. frankly if the pandemic had been handled in a manner where lives were placed above the Dow Jones average Trump's 1% cares about, we wouldn't be the worst country in the entire world at containing the virus. the only reason kids are not in school is solely due to the lack of any appreciable leadership along with the complete lack of a unified plan other than wishing the virus away.


<Trump's> anti mask rhetoric and large gatherings detract heavily from this

detract? no, he is actively killing ignorant Americans.
the world will be a safer place now that he is on the verge of being gone.
Trump has done nothing to help the country other than enact policy to enrich himself and his family.
 
My concern is that I don't see that our administration made a conscious decision to be less restrictive as a risk trade off. I am concerned that we are where we are as a result of ignoring the problem.
I agree. I think there is a lot of intuitive/heuristic decision making happening on all sides.


One example of poor leadership is the wearing of masks, there is no question they slow the virus spread, and they take nothing from the economy. We have never gotten any kind of explanation as to why our administration has not promoted mask wearing. Oh well, we are where we are, I just hope for a more coherent science informed and openly communicated policy going forward.
The mask issue is frustrating and I largely blame the major public health agencies for outright lying to the public to accomplish short-term goals they felt were in the public's best interest. The CDC was telling the general public NOT to wear masks January through early April. The WHO continued to tell the public not to wear masks through May ( CDC and WHO offer conflicting advice on masks. An expert tells us why. ). The initial messaging (and especially reporting) did a very poor job explaining that while masks were indeed effective, we needed to prioritize N95 masks for those most at risk of coming into contact with the infected. They completely failed to suggest the public could wear other masks (including homemade) until months later.

Additionally, masking has become tied to restrictive lockdowns. During our most restrictive lockdown period, California's tone-deaf PSA's said everyone should stay at home, physically distance, and wear masks -- and I quote -- "it could not be easier." Telling people they can't go to work, that they can't visit their dying relative, that they their life-extending cancer masectomies are postponed indefinitely because they are "elective," that they can't even attend their church in their time of crisis (yet they can attend rallies in opposition of their president) -- none of that was fucking easy, particularly for those in very rural locales where everyday driving on dangerous mountain roads represents a greater actual risk of death than covid19.


70% of the republican electorate, close to 35%, the "FOX news only" watching deviants in the country will likely oppose anything the new administration will suggest or mandate.
You mean like
#notmypresident #resist
 
the good news is that a vaccine seems closer,

The news is full of the new vaccine and it is good news.
Covid vaccine: First 'milestone' vaccine offers 90% protection

I found the following FB posting fascinating - it was shared by a doctor (GP) friend of mine - and it gives a lot of information that I hadn't realised... While part of it is specific to the UK - I think that aspects about the vaccine will be of global interest...

Public facing messages for non-GP FB friends thinking WTF?
Q: Headlines last week spoke of “Covid vaccine by Xmas from GPs”. What does this mean for me?
A: Whilst we certainly would want to be involved in any vaccination campaign, we don’t have any information ourselves yet and contrary to media reports no ‘deals’ have yet been done, but we expect more information soon.
Q: Will you be getting paid to vaccinate us?
A: GPs hold a contract with the NHS to provide certain services. The money from that contract pays for the building, the heating and electricity, the nurses, receptionists and staff, clinical equipment and a variety of other expenses that go with providing services to patients.
If the government wants GPs to do something new, (e.g. deliver a new vaccine) it will buy that service from the GP to pay for the extra staff, clinics and hours to cover expenses. It is very unlikely that GPs will make a profit out of the Covid vaccine. Based on current information they may make a loss, but recognise that it is the right thing to do for their patients and communities.
But what we don’t know, if what we might have to consider stop doing, to free up time to provide this vaccination service, given that we are working at 150% compared with this time last year, according to our LMC’s survey.
Q: But isn’t it just like a flu jab?
A: No, not by a long stretch.
Flu jabs are delivered in their own little syringes, and kept refrigerated. They can safely last in a vaccine fridge for several months. We can keep them and use them, either in dedicated flu clinics or opportunistically if we see you for something else. We can run the clinics a bit like a conveyor belt, as I’m sure many of you will have experienced. We can get a large number of people vaccinated in a very short period of time. People then leave the practice immediately. Once a year, job done.
Q: So what’s different about a new Covid vaccine compared with the flu jab?
A: These new vaccines are not yet ready, and we don’t know when they will be. They are completely different. They need to be stored frozen in special dry ice, colder than a home freezer (about -70°C). Surgeries don’t have those freezers. So they will be delivered whilst they are defrosting for use. However they can only be stored in a vaccine fridge for a few days before expiring.
They don’t come in their own little syringes. We will have to carefully draw them up from a main vial, dilute and mix them for each individual which will probably take from start to finish about 20 minutes, needing two members of staff (one to draw up, one to check - this is established safe practise with these preparations to minimise error).
Once you have received your Covid-jab you will be invited to wait for 15 minutes to ensure you are then ok to go - these vaccines are brand new, and whilst there is a huge regulatory framework to ensure their safety, we will have to take extra care.
This in itself will be difficult as we have to maintain social distancing and we don’t know how quickly these clinics will take place. It will be nowhere near as quick as a flu clinic.
Q: Will this be at my local GP surgery?
A: To begin with, NHS England thinks that areas will have one central Covid-jab centre. This might be in a local practice. It might be yours, it might not. It might be in a local ‘pod’ run by the local NHS. You may have to travel. How the chosen centre will continue to look after its patients ongoing and urgent health needs, we don’t yet know. No details of those plans have been shared yet.
Q: Is it just one jab?
A: No. You will need two. They will be 3-4 weeks apart but you must not have had any other vaccinations in the previous week.
Q: How many patients will get it the vaccine when it’s ready?
A: Government says it wants 40 million people vaccinated (that’s 80 million appointments). Putting that into context, every year there are 40 million A&E attendances and 360 million GP appointments. This is going to take a long time. There are no spare GPs or practice nurses. We don’t yet know how we are going to plan for this on top of what we are doing now - managing hundreds of acute and chronic patients every day: on the phone, over video and being brought into the surgery by invitation.
Q: Will it be available by Christmas?
A: No one knows. But if it is, there will be a very small number of doses and we think the Government might suggest protecting Care Home residents first.
Whatever you read in the paper or online, don’t forget - this is going to be very difficult. We need to make sure there is a safe system and a safe vaccine first.
Even when it comes, it won’t prevent Covid, it will only make its effects milder. So please bear with us - there is much we don’t yet know either.
The bottom line is that there is still every reason to think ‘Hands, Face, Space’ for a long time to come, well into 2021.
 
so to claim doctors have zero compassion with those who do not directly affect their "income" or "numbers" is a horrible statement to make.
I said nothing of the sort. I said, in effect, to the man with a hammer everything looks like a nail.

you should rely on stories from people who know conditions first hand and not from those with political views and intentions who simply fabricate specious rhetoric.
Given your political leanings, I should hope you would find the washington post and CDC credible.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/16/coronavirus-dementia-alzheimers-deaths/?arc404=true

Screenshot 2020-11-10 at 11.56.20.png





the useless people, right?
I believe it is rational and objective to conclude the loss of 40 years of lifespan is more significant than the loss of 5 years of lifespan. Medicine normally agrees with me, which is why they regularly discriminate against septa & octagenerians when harvesting organs for transplant.

Furthermore, I think 325 million people losing 25% of their freedoms for 1 year is analogous to 81 million people being locked in prison for a year. And I think 81 million people effectively being in prison for 1 year is roughly analogous to 1 million 78-year lifespans lost. On the other hand, the average age of a covid death is over 60. The average 60 year old in the US has a life expectancy of 22 years (we'll even ignore the fact the average covid death had at least 1 comorbidity and thus a much shorter expected lifespan)

The current "best guess" infection fatality rate from the CDC is 0.5%. With zero intervention, we would expect 80% or so of the population to get infected before the virus could no longer spread effectively. Of those 260 million infections, we would expect 1.3 million deaths. And those 1.3 million deaths would represent about 1/4 of a lifespan (20 years lost of an 80-year lifespan) - so they would be like 325,000 full lifespans lost.

So in my libertarian hyper rational hypo emotional view, doing absolutely nothing at all would have resulted in fewer lost/wasted lifespans than our noble-but-misguided efforts to "save lives."

how about the 666 and growing number of children the Trump administration took away from their parents?
there are only four kids Trump has any concern for.
What does this have to do with covid19? I'm a libertarian - I'm more "open borders" than most, but even I realize the need for immigration control (our democracy could easily be overwhelmed by unrestricted immigration of peoples (and states) who don't share our values).

If a family were to habitually shoplift, we would punish and parents and send the children to be with someone hopefully more responsible because we recognize the children don't really belong in jail. We don't have that option with illegal immigrants. Obama locked up children as well, but most felt Obama could do no wrong. The guy won a Nobel peace price despite sending troops on combat missions in nearly every country on the planet.

Given that illegal immigration is not a new problem and isn't going away, we probably should construct new facilities capable of detaining whole families until they can have their day in court and be admitted legally or deported.

if this pandemic was handled the same way it was in South Korea (first death due to the virus happened on the same day in both countries), we wouldn't have had the first shutdown... well over 200,000 Americans would still be alive and i could be sitting at a bar having a beer and doing the NYT crossword. frankly if the pandemic had been handled in a manner where lives were placed above the Dow Jones average Trump's 1% cares about, we wouldn't be the worst country in the entire world at containing the virus. the only reason kids are not in school is solely due to the lack of any appreciable leadership along with the complete lack of a unified plan other than wishing the virus away.
We're not South Korea - we're a lot more free, we're a lot more diverse, and we have massive & porous borders. And, in my estimation, perhaps only 100,000 of those Americans would still be alive - 100,000 of them were very unwell already and unlikely to live more than 6 months anyway.


the world will be a safer place now that he is on the verge of being gone.

If Democrats win both Georgia Senate seats and choose to ram through policies despised by 1/2 the country I think the world, or at least America, will be decidedly less safe. The last civil war killed 2% of the population - equivalent to 6.5 million today - and involved much less sophisticated weaponry. I think America continuing to oscillate between partisan extremes, each trying to run up their score during their fleeting moments of power - make civil war more likely with each passing year.

For a base rate comparison, the average life expectancy of a superpower is about 200 years (the US is ~240-244 depending on whether you count the declaration or the British surrender). Superpowers with vast geographies and politically diverse populations tend to have shorter lifespans (bad for us) while superpowers where the population can affect change in the government tend to have longer lifespans (good for us).
 
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Back on topic. For the Americans here, Georgia Tech has a handy website that will estimate the probability of encountering at least 1 person infected with covid19 based on your county and the size of the gathering: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

A gathering of 10 random people in El Paso, TX currently has an 89% chance of having 1 person there with an infection, while a gathering of 10 random people a 75-minute drive away in Jeff Davis County, TX has less than a 1% chance of having 1 person with an infection. I think that illustrates well why covid countermeasures need to be tailored to the risk/threat level at each locality.
 
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And so it begins: after traveling to a vacation home to join family members outside his household, Joe Biden tells Americans to stay at home for Thanksgiving to fight the spread of Covid19. The media picks up the story and expresses righteous outrage at his hypocrisy.
 
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