Believe me I am ok with complexity. I have a phD in biophysics. The answers that I am getting do not seem to be lining up in any way.
Let me go into my own history. I was always thin (my parents were sure I was going to die because my ribs stuck out) When I got married I gorged a little on the honeymoon and gained 15 pounds. Then about 15 pounds with the birth and chaos of each child. Other than life changing events, my metabolism is very stable. I eat too much, I just am hot and wiggly the next day. I can go years without my weight changing by more than 5 pounds.
I have done the exercise hard thing. My last job was in phoenix. I did a 3 hour grueling bike ride everyday to and from work. I averaged between 18-22 mph for the whole ride and if fat could melt off, it would have in that heat. Didn't lose a pound. I had too much going on to deal with the hunger and stress of cutting calories. I mostly rode because it took the same amount of time to drive and I wanted to be healthy.
I am now in job in Holland. Now I ride my bike for 15 minutes to work and back, the weather is nice, and as I am now working on setting up a new job and teaching my children dutch, as well as just getting adjusted to a new life. I know that I am operating pretty close to my BMR.
I am just looking at the most efficent way to lose weight. A little bit of study shows that most of studies should have been thrown out. Seriously, the science here is seriously lacking. So I was checking before I just dove in with the old eat less move more idiom.
There is a lot here to me that suggests a problem with your actual metabolic behvaour as well as your accounting of what you are taking in. How often/long have you been charting your actual food intake?
To me it seems like you have a long history of undereating for you activity needs. When this is the case you are going to have changes in your metabolic functions (hormones, adrenal function, glands, CNS, peptides,etc.) If you operate under the process of undereating for years and years and years it is no longer undereating, it just is your metabolic behavior. I would be very interested to not hear an accounting for daily activity and lifestyle but an exact counting and food journal of your eating habits during these different times in your life.
Regardless of that your biggest problem is living in the past, body comp and dietary speaking. Here is the absolute. The absolute is what's done is done and you either
A-are not accounting properly for you intake or
B-are accounting properly for your intake and its either
1) wrong for you or
2) low and you need to focus on increasing your metabolic function.
Instead of figuring out the best way for you to lose weight you first need to figure out what it is you are dealing with as far as your body composition goes.
That being said as to the other...
1. Exercising more is just the same as eating less. I found more than a few studies that support this. Most were well done. Most have found that it is more important to cut calories just because it is much easier to cut 500 calories than it is to burn 500 calories. All the bad effects of dieting seem to be related to the size of the calorie deficit, not the manner it is created. I am probably wrong about this and would be glad to get more information.
First studies are for the most part crap. They are performed poorly, and rarely determine anything other than the fact that years were wasted on methods of studies that prove nothing. Still there are good one and it seems like you are just getting hold of a bunch of bad ones.
This statement is almost 100% right. "All the bad effects of dieting seem to be related to the size of the calorie deficit, not the manner it is created."
How is it wrong, it isn't so much the size of the caloric deficit, it is the relation of the caloric deficit to the need of natural body process. Allow me to explain.
Female Athlete A-Needs 1500 calories a day for basic body function to process correctly. They train at a high intensity level. That level of activity demands that they need roughly 2000 extra calories a day for activity. This mean to maintain all their needed energy they would have to consume 3500 calories. Since they are trying to cut weight their coach puts them on a 1400 caloric diet (very common for female athletes). This gives them a daily negative of 2100 calories. What is the end result?
The end result is a lowered metabolic function, lower energy expenditure (meaning body forced lower caloric output), electrolyte dysfunction, water/glycogen transfer, high rise in chance of injury, etc. In short she is either going to force re-feed (on a now lower metabolic pattern) or she will meet with injury and be out of it all together. Usually the binging/re-feeds occur, diet pattern and behavior is continued and thus is the reason you see so many chubby female athletes who look "bulky". The big problem was there at no time where enough nutrients to the body to provide general repair and function. There wasn't enough in to support the out of nutrients. I will explain this further in the next bit though.
NOW
Take same athlete and instead of a 2100 negative deficit, give her a 1000 deficit leave her with 2400 calories a day she takes in for fat loss. Now there still will be loss of metabolic functioning at its peak level, but its less, in fact there is still a chance for a lot of the problems above but on a much lower level. The big importance is that there are more nutrients coming in a out. So while fuel may be running low and in the negative still, there was still a nice level of comfort to the body of nutrients coming in to not "freak out" the system. Let me describe it another way.
Take a automoblie vehicle.
Lets say you drive your car all day long and you fill up the car with gas and don't refill it up again until its bone dry and stops on the side of the road. What are going to overtime happen to the mechanics of that vehicle? That extra strain on the parts of the car overtime are going to wear and tear till one day something gives and then something else and you have a new lawn decoration.
Now take the same vehicle and instead of stopping when its bone dry you have a fuel truck riding along side you pumping gas into it right before it gets to that point. Because the rest of the vehicle parts never have to compensate for the lack of fuel, then the wear and tear of those parts is minimal to none at all.
This is why eating more AND moving more is the ultimate combination for fat loss.
2. Losing weight is bad for your health, being fat is even worse. Studies have shown that it does not matter if you lose weight fast or slow, it is the same. Now I understand that losing fast is extremely hard mentally, but to be honest, so is dieting for the rest of existence. I also realize that it is only possible to lose about 3 pounds per week without some kind of superhuman abilities.
You are right the body does not ever want to be in a deficit. It is against nature. No matter how you do it there are problems, but you can LESSEN those problems as much as possible and get in and out. That is exactly what I do with my clients. We get it off as fast and as safe as possible and get back to supercharging their daily metabolic patterns.
3. I am still curious about how BMR is effected by eating less. Not metabolism. Right now, I and most of America are operating pretty close to their resting metabolism. I would like to know if BMR, not metabolism is effected by how much you eat. Everything seems to indicate that BMR is a function only of weight, but I am probably wrong here too.
You seem to miss how everything goes hand in end, the butterfly effect of things. Your BMR is not just related by weight, its related to how your body functions (from heart rate, kidneys, lungs, liver, bowels, etc.) The heavier you are the more these things need to function. Go back to the car example. IF you are not feeding your body properly this is going to put strain on your organs. Your heart rate is going to drop but cortisol is going to rise meaning more adrenal signals, this is going to overload organ secretions. Your liver is going to start to get strained and usually digestion problems start to occur and enzyme production slows. All of this leads to what? The engine slowing down and chugging, performance of your body being less and less. This means less energy expenditure at rest (BMR) brought on by lack of fuel.