I have a weight loss plan... but is it a good plan?

[Squee1]

Hello there! I am looking for a few perspectives on a weight loss plan. First, I apologize for the wall of text, but I have put a lot of thought into this and want to be detailed. I am 5’10, almost 36 years old, and just creeped over 230 pounds. I have been suffering from migraines recently and it was determined that I have mild sleep apnea. Obviously, this has all been an enormous wake call for me and I am taking it very seriously. I understand the basics of it all. I need to burn more calories than I take in. Exercise is important, but not as important as how much I eat. I want to lose 60 pounds over the course of the next year.
Having laid all that out, I was hoping people who have knowledge about this could help me ensure I have my ducks in a row.

One key factor to all of this, is creating a plan of action I can keep without being miserable. To this end I have created the following:
My BMR is somewhere between 2,200 and 2,400 (Different tools give different results). This gives me a base daily goal of 1,500 calories a day. This gives me a weekly deficit of 4,900-6,300 calories allowing me to lose 1-2 pounds a week.

I plan to exercise at the gym Mon/Wed/Fri with a goal of a 500 calorie workout. In theory, that is 1500 calories a week that I can spread out over 7 days to bump my allowed daily intake to 1700 a day while still maintain that same 4,900-6,300 calorie deficit. Is this a valid way of looking at it? Sometimes I feel like I am over simplifying it, but the math makes sense.

Since calorie counting is vital to all of this, I plan to cook large meals that I can calorie count and divide them up into 500-600 calorie portions to eat throughout the week. Like make a big pot of Beef stew, carefully count what calories go into it, and divide it up accordingly. I have never been a big breakfast guy, so I want to do breakfast shakes in the morning. So… 200 calories for a shake, and two 600-ish calorie meals per day would still give me 400 calories for snacks or nights where I want a bigger dinner.

And that’s pretty much it. Though, I have some questions and provide a little more information below if anyone needs it. First, while I understand the need to eat healthier foods, and I plan to, am I correct in thinking Calorie count is King? For example, if I really want a Hamburger and fries and that meal would not put me over my daily limit, can I eat that meal guilt free? I also have one big vice. I don’t Drink, or smoke, or listen to country, but I do love Diet Doctor Pepper. I have been told that is still bad because of the caffeine and the fact that it can make you hungrier. If I drink the Caffeine free version and don’t break my daily calorie limit, can I enjoy my vice? Are their any supplements I should consider? I have always been dubious of such things because I have no way of knowing if these supplements are doing anything or just wasting my money.

If you managed to get through all of this, thank you! I really would value any insight you may have.

Extra Info:
My workout, at the moment, involves 20 minutes of upper body weight lifting and the treadmill. The weight lifting is nothing excessive, but I have been told that building up some muscle will help me maintain my weight if and when I hit my goal as muscle burns more calories than fat. I have trouble running as I have a ruptured disk in my spine and the jolts hurt. I’ve tried several cardio activities and found I most enjoy speed walking at a steep incline on the tread mill for 40 minutes. On average (If my math is right I burn 150 calories in weight lifting and 350 calories on the tread mill.

 

[Trusylver]

Unfortunately maths is not everything for fat loss

One key factor to all of this, is creating a plan of action I can keep without being miserable. To this end I have created the following:
My BMR is somewhere between 2,200 and 2,400 (Different tools give different results).

Which method did you use for your calculations, the most accurate formula is based off lean body mass, which means you need yo measure or estimate your current bodyfat %

I plan to exercise at the gym Mon/Wed/Fri with a goal of a 500 calorie workout. In theory, that is 1500 calories a week that I can spread out over 7 days to bump my allowed daily intake to 1700 a day while still maintain that same 4,900-6,300 calorie deficit. Is this a valid way of looking at it? Sometimes I feel like I am over simplifying it, but the math makes sense.

Calorie burn from exercise is very hard to estimate, cardio machines usually over estimate that burn and lifting should only count the time lifting and not rest periods between sets. Individual response to exercise is also variable.

Since calorie counting is vital to all of this, I plan to cook large meals that I can calorie count and divide them up into 500-600 calorie portions to eat throughout the week. Like make a big pot of Beef stew, carefully count what calories go into it, and divide it up accordingly. I have never been a big breakfast guy, so I want to do breakfast shakes in the morning. So… 200 calories for a shake, and two 600-ish calorie meals per day would still give me 400 calories for snacks or nights where I want a bigger dinner.

meal prep like this is a very good option, but if you do not usually eat breakfast don't force yourself, Intermittent fasting has a lot of benefits, it is a myth that breakfast is the most important meal of the day.

but I do love Diet Doctor Pepper. I have been told that is still bad because of the caffeine and the fact that it can make you hungrier. If I drink the Caffeine free version and don’t break my daily calorie limit, can I enjoy my vice? Are their any supplements I should consider? I have always been dubious of such things because I have no way of knowing if these supplements are doing anything or just wasting my money.

Caffeine actually increases calorie burn, it is the artificial sugar in the drinks which are every bit as bad as the real sugar, the artificial sugar can trigger food craving exactly the way the full sugar versions of the drink can.

Supplements are only generally useful if you have a nutritional deficit, eg protein shakes if you are not eating enough protein, BCAA if you are not eating enough complete proteins (many vegetable proteins have an incomplete profile)

My workout, at the moment, involves 20 minutes of upper body weight lifting and the treadmill. The weight lifting is nothing excessive, but I have been told that building up some muscle will help me maintain my weight if and when I hit my goal as muscle burns more calories than fat. I have trouble running as I have a ruptured disk in my spine and the jolts hurt. I’ve tried several cardio activities and found I most enjoy speed walking at a steep incline on the tread mill for 40 minutes. On average (If my math is right I burn 150 calories in weight lifting and 350 calories on the tread mill.

Yes lifting is important for maintaining muscle, but unless you are bot very new to lifting and carrying a LOT of excess fat, you will not build muscle in calorie deficit, the bigger the deficit the larger % of muscle you will loose. your cardio is fine, but don't rely on the calorie readout on the machine, Use a heart rate monitor to calculate calorie burn, while not perfect, it is a little more accurate.

A note on approaches to weight loss

the traditional approach to weight loss does work for many including calorie counting, but do not rule out alternate approaches including low carb / keto and intermittent fasting, the science behind these approaches is good and worth considering. The content of your diet does count, even if a burger fits into a calorie limit, it can still hinder weight loss through the large spike in blood glucose and insulin response caused by the sugar in the bun (burger buns have a lot more sugar than bread) the large insulin spike is a signal for the body to store fat.

 

[Squee1]

Thank you for the quick response! I will certainly consider what you have said. I have a few follow up questions.
1. I have heard about the artificial sugar in things like Diet DP triggering more hunger, but if I have the discipline to maintain my calorie limits, can I mitigate the ill effects. this is going to be a nightmare to quit if I have to.
2. I have been lifting weights for a few months and seen improvement in how much I can lift in my reps. If I should not expect to gain muscle mass on a calorie deficit, should I expect that improvement to stop? Is there any benefit to continuing, or should I spend the entire hour focusing on cardio and move to lifting when I hit my weight goal.
3. Following up on the Cheeseburger example, are you saying to cut it out all together, or moderation? As in, if you stay under your daily limit and have a burger once in a while, the loss will be slower than it could be, but you will still lose weight, or will it seriously screw up my long term goals if I indulge in some value meals once in a while?

 

[Trusylver]

1. I have heard about the artificial sugar in things like Diet DP triggering more hunger, but if I have the discipline to maintain my calorie limits, can I mitigate the ill effects. this is going to be a nightmare to quit if I have to.

if you can handle the increased hunger, go for it, not everybody gets cravings.

2. I have been lifting weights for a few months and seen improvement in how much I can lift in my reps. If I should not expect to gain muscle mass on a calorie deficit, should I expect that improvement to stop? Is there any benefit to continuing, or should I spend the entire hour focusing on cardio and move to lifting when I hit my weight goal.

Lifting in calorie deficit allows you to still build strength, and more importantly maintain the muscle you have, but building increased size in deficit is generally not going to happen unless you are very new to lifting and have a lot of fat to loose. Reps and weight for building size is optimally different than reps and weight for building strength and maintaining muscle. if you are improving the number of reps you are doing, increase the weight you are lifting rather than the number of reps you are doing.

3. Following up on the Cheeseburger example, are you saying to cut it out all together, or moderation? As in, if you stay under your daily limit and have a burger once in a while, the loss will be slower than it could be, but you will still lose weight, or will it seriously screw up my long term goals if I indulge in some value meals once in a while?

the burger will slow progress, but it is not going to kill your efforts in the long run if it is an occasional indulgence.

 

[overlandflyer]

i cannot help but feel i sound like a broken record on this forum, so to save a little typing, please look through my diary (FLyer's Diary). a year ago i was 5' 11", 230 lbs... 236 at my worst. after ~6 months of conventional dieting with a mere ~10 lb loss, i learned some things that changed my whole way of thinking. today i am at 175 (BMI of 24.5) with still a bit to lose. i don't count calories or even exercise very much (until recently... explained on my diary pages). if you do nothing else, take an hour or two and listen to these guys...

Dr. Robert Lustig - Sugar -- the elephant in the kitchen
Dr. Jason Fung - Therapeutic Fasting - Solving the Two-Compartment Problem

it may change your mind, too.
good luck.